Friday, November 17, 2006

Market Snaps Back Into Line

Yesterday's market was totally out of whack given the direction of data and Fedspeak. Forget Moskow's assertions to the otherwise, after all the Fed always wants us to know that they are vigiliant in their vigilance against the virus of rising inflation expectations. Poole has noted that a reason downturns in the economy aren't as deep or protracted is that the Fed eases and eases alot once it sees the economy heading south. This week, Poole let us know that the FOMC is ready to ease and ease alot if the data swing in that direction. Consequently, bets in the market today are a bet on data, not the Fed. The policy we know -- stay put or ease. As for the direction of the data? Its all a guess -- an educated guess perhaps, but still a guess.

Since today's swing was big enough, I have reproduced the Stan Jonas table of probabilities for your reference.


Anonymous said...

I find what you write extremely interesting. Could you please explain how to read the table?
thank you

Steve Blitz said...

the column marked FRI is the probability of a 25bp fed tightening (+) or ease(-) for each month imn which there is a FOMC meeting. Below is the impact on the various instruments is 0 because this is the pricing in the market at the close on Friday. The other columns are various scenarios. You can see the impact on the prices and/or yields as you move from FRI to the other possibilities.