Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Dog Bites Man . . . . . . As I was saying,

Those few of you who have been reading this blog know that the skip and the statement were in line with what I had written in my blog "White Knuckle Time for Bernanke" on July 20.

Reading a bit more into it, Bernanke must've gotten sobering anecdotal information on economic activity. This raised his confidence in the forecast from 50/50 to something high enough to give him confidence to stop.

Looking forward, the Fed will not go in Sep. The only Sep move they would make is a pause -- if the data collapsed. Market expectations, and lets wait till the day ends to see where that is, may price small odds for a tightening when the truer possibility is the opposite. This is one time where 0% could mean the market is 50/50 on tightening or easing or, if you will, equally divided into 3rds as to whether they tighten, ease, or do nothing.

Like the Fed, we sit and wait and watch the data roll in. Not something we are all comfortable doing, since we are programmed to do something, but there is no choice. Enjoy the rest of the summer, we will need the r&r to get ready for what promises to be a rollicking time for expectations.

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